麻豆影视

After months of highly politicized debates, and as coronavirus , a new consensus is emerging on how to keep schools open during a pandemic: prioritize the youngest students for in-person instruction.

This has been the guiding principle behind recent COVID-19 plans from governors in Michigan and Rhode Island and New York City鈥檚 mayor, along with leaders in multiple other prominent urban school systems. Districts such as have either begun in-person learning for younger students, or plan to bring young children back first when reopening occurs.

Last week, on the matter, telling CNN that 鈥渨e can safely open those elementary schools,鈥� if Congress provides the needed additional funding.

Preliminary case numbers among students seem to back the approach of bringing back the youngest learners first. In New York City, the nation鈥檚 largest district, where elementary students return to the classroom tomorrow after the city briefly shuttered schools before Thanksgiving, results from the city鈥檚 plan to randomly test 20 percent of students and staff for the virus every week may become a proof-point for this model.

Existing data, however, raise what could be an important caveat. While in-person learning appears to be relatively safe for elementary and middle school students, the risks may not be reduced for teachers.

鈥淸School staff] are experiencing a completely different trend than what the students are,鈥� said Rebekah Jones, who runs a national tracker of school coronavirus cases called the .

Jones, a former Florida Department of Health data scientist, has emerged as a contradictory voice in the debate over K-8 in-person learning. Jones has said she was fired for standing up against demands from her superiors to .

According to data from her tracker, which is run in partnership with and financial literacy nonprofit , the rate of positive cases for high school students is , which aligns with reports from many locales. In Michigan, for instance, where as of Nov. 15 there had been 200 documented school outbreaks, 49 percent of those incidents and nearly two-thirds of cases were associated with high schools, said Lynn Sutfin of the state鈥檚 Department of Health and Human Services.

But while student case rates vary significantly by grade level, Jones鈥檚 data show that the rate of infection among staff stays relatively constant between elementary and high schools, meaning, she said, that the assumed reduction in coronavirus risk for young children does not seem to carry over to the teachers in their buildings.

鈥淚f you鈥檙e concerned about staff exposure, then elementary schools aren鈥檛 that great,鈥� she told The 74.

New York City is one of the few large urban districts that did bring back a percentage of its 1.1 million K-12 students this fall for some level of in-school learning and during that time it conducted random monthly COVID-19 testing. Before the Nov. 19 shutdown, the results identified a among students and staff.

The COVID Monitor, however is not the only coronavirus school tracker that displays worrisome numbers for elementary school staff.

While Jones has the work of Brown University professor Emily Oster, the author of prominent op-eds in The Atlantic and The Washington Post arguing that , the same finding on teacher infection rates holds true in Oster鈥檚 , which accounts for over 1.6 million in-person learners and 540,000 staff.

While Oster鈥檚 dashboard reports lower case rates for elementary school students than high school students, the case rate for teachers is actually slightly higher in elementary schools.

In Oster鈥檚 most recent batch of data, covering the period from Nov. 9 to Nov. 22, the disparity is even more stark. High schoolers had 26 daily virus cases per 100,000 compared to only 15 for elementary schoolers. But in those same elementary school buildings, the staff infection rate was higher than at high schools during that period, at 36 per 100,000 in elementary schools versus 31 per 100,000 in high schools.

But Oster does not chalk those numbers up to school-related spread.

鈥淭he reason for [the comparable rates among teachers across grade level] is likely that infections are occurring outside school,鈥� she told The 74 over email. 鈥淪o it just suggests the outside activities are similar in the two groups of teachers.鈥�

Graphics that Oster published in The Washington Post in November, however, indicated that .

Still, preliminary studies, such as a recent look at youth vs. adult antibody responses to COVID-19, seem to support Oster鈥檚 argument, indicating that the virus may take hold less frequently and more weakly in children. If that were true, those students could be less likely to infect the people around them. However, the study鈥檚 authors caution that .

For now, health experts say, schools鈥� best course of action is to follow the protocols of mask-wearing, ventilation, and social distancing. Mask mandates alone, based on statistics from Florida, are associated with a .

In Rhode Island, where Gov. Gina Raimondo recently approved cutbacks in classroom learning for high schoolers but advised against closing elementary and middle schools, rates of virus transmission in schools have remained low, said Dr. Philip Chan, associate professor of medicine at Brown University and medical director for the Rhode Island Department of Health.

鈥淎ll these [safety precautions], when done appropriately like public health has been preaching, actually work,鈥� he said. 鈥淚t鈥檚 a success story.鈥�

Still, based on the data in her tracker, Jones believes the threats remain potent 鈥� especially for teachers.

鈥淭here should be a choice for teachers to say 鈥業 don鈥檛 want to take this risk. And I shouldn鈥檛 lose my livelihood because I don鈥檛 want to die,鈥欌�� she said.

Students, however, have been borne the brunt of school closures, with early studies indicating that many have lost 183 days in reading and 232 days in math during remote learning. In extreme cases, and student setbacks go beyond academics, with lost access to food and mental health services. Educators鈥� fears of catching the virus have at times pitted demands from . In New York City, for example, strong parent advocacy for in-person learning played a key role in officials reversing the Nov. 19 school shutdown.

As a creative solution, Jones suggests 鈥渦s[ing] the shuttered middle or high school facilities to spread out students more.鈥� Sutfin of the Michigan health department had not heard of such a plan in her state, but Dr. Chan said that in Rhode Island schools are encouraged to spread out to empty facilities.

For districts like New York City, however, such moves may be impossible, as Mayor de Blasio says he plans to . He is also asking reopened elementary schools to in favor of five-days-a-week in-person instruction. Space and staffing shortages have already complicated that transition, including because of the city鈥檚 teachers with underlying health conditions or at-risk family members have been granted medical accommodations to work remotely.

For Jones, who found that , the clear first step is to push older students remote, wherever possible. She lauds leaders who have made the choice to prioritize younger students and students with special needs for classroom learning.

鈥淭hat鈥檚 what I鈥檝e been saying for months,鈥� Jones said.

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